Diferensia Upstream, Midstream no Downstream Industria Minarai

Husi: Teodoro M. Mota | opiniaun

Investimentu industria mina no gas fahe ba parte tolu; upstream, midstream no downstream. Saida mak upstream?, upstream mak aktividade nebee asosia ho explorasaun no produsaun mina no gas ou bain-bain hanaran aktividade nebee ligadu ho buka no deskoberta mina no gas, halo perfurasaun ate to’o foti mina no gas husi tasi/rai okos. Midstream mak aktividade nebee liga husi upstream ba downstream. Aktividade midstream involve transportasaun, pipeline, tanker mina no gas, no ect. Enkuantu downstream mak aktividades nebee ligadu ho prosesu likifikasaun ou prosesamentu mina no gas molok faan ba merkadu. Aktividades downstream involve planta LNG, refinaria, industria petrokimika no marketing.

Oinsa ho kondisaun TL sobre futuru dezenvolvimentu kampu greater sunrise?. Tuir informasaun husi Timor Gap nudar national oil company (NOC) investimentu ba upstream, midstream no downstream kustu purvolta $ 10.5 billioens to’o $ 12 billioens dollars. Iha parte seluk, kompanya operador Woodside ho joint venture Osaka deklara ona sira sei la investa iha parte downstream. Nunee TL via Timor Gap mak sei investa fundu 100% ba parte downstream. Perguntas mak nee, fundu investimentu husi nebee?. Enkuantu TL nia fundu petrolifera (FP) nebee rai iha Banku Federal U.S. hela deit ona $ 16.98 billioens dollars, nunee Timor Gap (TG) sei evita no la uja FP hodi halo investimentu. 

Tamba nee, dalang diak liu tuir pratika normativa industria minarai, investimentu bele halo husi TG ho nia partnership sein uja fundu petroleum. Partnership mak sei investa engineering, procurement and construction (EPC ou EPC plus finance). EPC plus finance signifika kompanya mak sei investa osan no konstrui projeitu intermu investimentu iha pipeline, marine no surface facilities ou planta LNG. TG ho nia parseria bele halo imprestimu (debe ou loan) hodi halo investimentu no sira sei rekopera fali osan wainhira hahu halo produsaun ba kampu Greater Sunrise ho potensia rezerva gas 7.7 tcf (trillion cubic feet) no mina 300 MMbbls kondensadu no LPG. Kompanya sei rekopera osan via profit share, cost recovery (CR), internal rate of return (IRR), ho instrumentus fiskal seluk. Ho ida nee, TG tenke servisu makas halo negosiasaun no buka partnership ou international oil company (IOC) hodi investa iha parte downstream. TG ho kompanya EPC bele investa iha parte downstream hodi lori pipeline mai TL no asegura receitas 100% mai TL. 

Presija intende iha industria minarai kompanya atu suporta ou dezenvolve seitor mina no gas fahe ba parte tolu mak: kompanya owner, kompanya service ho kompanya EPC. EPC mak kompanya nebee sei sai parseria ho kompanya owner ou Timor Gap. EPC mak kompanya nebee sei investa fundu ba downstream intermu; prepara, stimula no dezeinu planta LNG ate to'o konstrusaun planta LNG ou fasilidades likifikasaun gas natural. Enkuantu kompanya owner bain-bain prepara rai ou fatin ou rekursu hodi harii fasilidades prosesamentu mina no gas. Kompanya owner mak kompanya nebee nain ba rekursu mina no gas. Kompanya refere sei partisipa direita hodi halo explorasaun no produsaun ba mina no gas. Kompanya service mak kompanya nebee sei responsabilija ba perfurasaun mina no gas. Kompanya service performansia diak, kualifikadu, ou indentiku ho teknolojia sophistikadu nunee tulun asegura sucessu ba projeitu, mitiga risku, hahu husi buka mina to'o hetan mina ou foti mina no gas husi tasi/rai okos. Kompanya service mak hanesan Baker hughes, Schlumberger, Halliburton, Elnusa, FMC, no ect.

Profit indikator nebee bain-bain uja iha industria minarai hodi atrai kompanya owner, service ho EPC halo investimentu mak; net present value (NPV), internal rate of return (IRR), benefit cost ratio (B/C), no payback of time (POT). Kompanya sempre investa wainhira valor IRR boot liu minimum actractive of return (MARR). Analizasaun project economics nudar sasukat ba companya operador, joint venture no host country foti desijaun ba dezenvolvimentu projeitu kampu GS. Komersialidade kampu greater sunrise depende ba demanda gas iha merkadu (buyer), presu (price) no rezerva mina no gas (reserve).

Tuir regime espesial foun iha kampu greater sunrise preve katak pipeline gas mai TL sei fahe rendimentu 70% mai TL no 30% ba Australia. Redimentu nebee TL sei hetan wainhira hahu halo produsaun kampu greater sunrise mak husi royalty 10% (5% ba governu no 5% ba kompanya). Husi 5% ba governu sei fahe tutan ba governu TL no Australia ho percentajem 70%:30%. Enkuantu 5% seluk ba kontraktores. Rendimentu seluk TL sei hetan husi investimentu kustu capital. Kustu kapital mak tuir kontratu hare liu ba kustu peskijas hotu nebee hahu husi explorasaun geolojia, seismiku, ou buka minarai no gas husi inisiu to'o hetan petroleum ou deskobre mina no gas. Kustu kapital tuir maneira kontratu nebee iha kuandu wainhira kompanya investa osan ona hodi buka mina no gas, estadu tenke selu 100% hafoin aumenta tan 127% hanesan kreditu investimentu (investment credit ou IC). Nee maneira kontratu uja hodi atrai ekonomikamente ba IOC sira hodi halo investementu iha ita nia rai. Ho partisipasaun 56.56% TL nia iha dezenvolvimentu kampu GS, signifika TL mos sei benefisia husi instrumentu IC 100 + 127%. Karik TG ho kompanya EPC mak investa iha downstream, entaun konserteja 100% receitas mai TL. Fahe lukru iha kampu GS tuir kontratu sei fahe 50% ba governu (husi 50% nee sei fahe 70% ba TL no 30% ba Australia) no 50% seluk ba kontraktores. Kontratu fahe rezultadu sei aplika mos ba produsaun produtu liquidu no gas iha kampu GS.

Investimentu ba downstream ou fasilidade planta LNG nebee sei harii iha beasu laos deit produs ou likifika gas husi kampu greater sunrise (GS) ho potensia rezervatoriu 7.7 tcf (trillion cubic feet), maibe mos sei produs kampu seluk lokaliza iha tasi Timor identifikadu ho rezervatoriu gas mak kampu gas Chuditch ho rezerva 0.7 tcf, kampu gas Kelp Deep ho estimasaun rezerva 8.4 – 13.6 tcf, no potensia gas em jeral iha teritoriu TL (Fontes informasaun: ANPM). Tuir informasaun husi Timor Gas ep., Eng. Francisco Monteiro, potensia mina TL emjeral inklui kampu greater sunrise ho potensia mina equivalente 6,3 billioens barel petroleum nebee bele produs to’o 50 anos ho valor osan $ 378 billioens dollars. Potensia nee bele reprezenta fundu explorasaun nebee sei konsume $ 223 billioens dollars ba nesesidades sira hanesan kestaun teknika, dezenvolvimentu, manutensaun, operasaun no benefisiu fiskal no rendimentu publiku liu $ 47 billioens dollars (Fontes informasaun; Timor Gap ep., Eng. Francisco Monteiro deklarasaun iha noticias sapo.tl, edisaun 18 abril 2019, horas 19:12). 

Benefisiu adisional husi investimentu downstream ou planta LNG no refinaria mak uja fasilidades refere, laos deit likifika gas ou produs mina husi rai laran, maibe mos bele importa mina no gas husi nasaun seluk hodi halo prosesamentu molok hodi ba merkadu. Ho partisipasaun TL via Timor Gap iha kampu greater sunrise sei hetan benefisiu dobru liu tan ba receitas TL. Rendimentu ba governu TL sei mai husi royalty, lukru, impostu, no reimbolsa ba kustu capital, domestic market obligation (DMO) no ect. Enkuantu kompanya operador ho joint venture sei hetan benefisiu husi profit share, cost recovery (CR), internal rate of return (IRR), no instrumentus fiskal seluk. God bless TL.

Referensia:

[1] Journal no livru : Petroleum fiscal systems and contracts, Hamburg, 2010.

[2] Internet web: http://noticias.sapo.tl/portugues/info/artigo/1531899.html

 [3] Internet web:http://web.anpm.tl/ 

[4] California Energy Commission. “Liquefied Natural Gas Safety.” Asesu dia 15 Oktober 2007, web:http://www.energy.ca.gov/lng/safety.html

 [5] Internet web:http://www.tatoli.tl/2019/05/31-marsu-2019-fundu-pertoleu-sae-ba-biliaun-us1698/

[6] Internet web:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mHUb01eKH0E

[7] TVTL, GMNTV no Radio (8 Dezembru 2018): “Semináriu nasional kona-ba asuntus relasionadus ho fronteiras marítimas no nia impaktu ba atividades petrolíferas.”, Sentru Konvensaun Dili (CCD). 

 [8] TVTL, GMNTV no Radio (8 Janeiru 2019): “Aprezentasaun husi Chefi negosiador, ANPM, Timor Gap ep., kona-ba asuntus relasionadus ho fronteiras marítimas no sosa asoens conocophillips no shell energy.”, Parlamentu Nasional (PN). 

[9] Internet web:https://www.facebook.com/TimorSeaBoundary/

 [10] Atlantic LNG (2007). Web: http://www.atlanticlng.com/

 [11] Internet web:https://www.timorgap.com/databases/website.nsf/vwall/home

 [12] internet web; http://gmntv.tl/en/economia/2019/05/explorasaun-kampu-gs-sei-fo-servisu-ba-timor-oan-10-000/?fbclid=IwAR0gzQUKbZh6zxMHkabdjdZiQSVp5SFc2SKkhTn8HsxbtPrtYSnfKhQZX2g