Tamba Saida TL Fahe Receitas 30% ho Australia iha Kampu GS, Tasi Timor?

Husi: Teodoro M. Mota | opiniaun

Pergunta nee pertinente. Polemika no disputas Fronteiras Tasi Timor hahu desde Portuguese ninian tempu antes de 1975, Portugal ho Australia la konsege resolve. Iha tempu okupasaun Indonesia, Indonesia ho Australia konsege asina tratadu sira ninian Fronteiras iha 1971 koalia konaba Seabed Boundary iha Tasi Arafura, no Tratadu Segundu asina iha 1972 iha Tasi Timor Fronteira Indonezia nian. Tratadu ida ne’e mak husik TL nian Tasi iha hela GAP ida ne’ebe konhecidu ho naran TIMOR GAP. Governu Portugues la konsege asegura Fronteiras nunee kontribui mos ba Australia atu negosia ho governu ida ne’ebé bele negosiavel.

Invasaun Indonesia iha Timor ne’ebé suksesu ikus mai kontribui mós ba negosiasaun Tratado TIMOR GAP ne’ebé asinadu husi Indonesia ho Australia reprezenta husi Ali Alatas no Gareth Evans iha aviaun leten hodi desidi ZOC (Zone of Cooperation) fahe ba tolu, ZOC A, ZOC B no ZOC C. ZOC A (agora JPDA) ne’e mak ninian receitas fahe entre Indonesia ho Australia 50:50 depois de kompanya rekupera ninian kustu. Tratadu ne’e ratifika iha 09 Fevereiru 1991. ZOC B no C, nasaun idak-idak mak regula depois nasaun rua fahe 10% husi Taxa ne’ebe mak hetan. Tratadu ne’e mak no fim ita renegosia fali depois ukun an no Premeiru Governu konsege atinzi partilha de lukru ba 90% e 10% iha Tratado Mar de Timor, nunee TL konsege atinzi husi 50% tratadu anterior sa'e ba 90%.

Regime kontratu nebee aplika iha kampu minarai Bayu Undan (BU) no Greater Sunrise (GS) kontinua deit nia regime uluk iha tempu Indonesia no Australia, wainhira 2002 TL restaura independensia. TL mak nain ba rekursu substitui Indonesia. Nunee kontratu sira uluk konverte husi TIMOR GAP mai iha JPDA depois de tratadu tasi timor 2002 asina. 

Deskoberta Kampu Minarai Greater Sunrise (GS) no Bayu Undan (BU)!

Saida mak greater sunrise (GS)?. GS mak kampu minarai nebee lokalija iha tasi Timor no klaim husi governu TL ho Australia. GS identifika iha tinan 1974. Kampu GS kompostu husi kampu gas rua mak; Sunrise no Troubadour ho potensia rezervatoriu gas purvolta 7.7 tcf (trillion cubic feet), no mina purvolta 300 millioens barrels condensadu. Hare ba dadus hatudu rezerva gas iha kampu GS boot liu gas kampu BU. Greater Sunrise mak kampo gas bo’ot ida ne’ebé agora ita hakarak dada kadoras mai Timor. Kampu GS quaze 79.9% tama tasi laran Australia nian no 20.1% mak tama mai iha ZOC A. 

Deskoberta seluk mak kampo Bayu Undan, kampo rua ne’e mak kampo ne’ebé rezulta husi Unitizasaun. Unitizasaun signifika kampo rua ne’ebe ninian rezervatorio la hanesan depois unitiza sai ida, termu ne’e mós bele aplika wainhira kampo ida ninian rezervatoriu tama ba iha fronteiras rai seluk nian, hanesan kaju kampu Greater Sunrise ou kazu Bayu Undan rasik. Iha kazu Bayu Undan, nee tanba rezervatoriu ninian estrutura iha kampo Undan tama ou kuaze rezervatoriu ida deit, tanba ne’e mak kampo Bayu Undan halo unitizasaun husi Kampo Bayu ho Undan. Kampo Bayu deskobre husi Phillips Petroleum liu husi posu Bayu-1 (iha kontratu ZOCA 91-13 nian laran) iha tinan 1995, no Fulan ha’at tuir ba BHP deskovre Kampo Undan deskovre liu husi posu Undan-1 (iha kontratu ZOCA 91-12). 

Kampu BU hahu deskoberta iha tinan 1995 ho rezervatoriu gas no kondensadu. Estimasaun 550 milioens barrels hidrokarbunetu liquidu no gas 4 tcf (trillion cubic feet). Kampu BU lokalija iha tasi timor area de dezenvolvimentu petrolifero conjunta ou joint petroleum development area/JPDA). Kampu BU hahu produs liquidu iha 2004 no gas hahu produs 2006. Estimasaun projeitu BU nia life time to'o tinan 25. Kampu BU kontribui ona receitas ba kofre estadu purvolta $ 30 billioens dollares amerikanu. Husi receitas $ 30 bilioens, $ 15 bilioens mak uja ona ba despeza publiku depois de independensia 2002 ate to'o agora no futuru. Nunee fundu petroleum (FP) agora dadaun rai iha banku federal US purvolta $ 15 é tal billioens dollar amerikanu. Receitas husi kampu BU 99,9% mak finansia OJE kada anum ba seitor dezenvolvimentu hotu-hotu iha TL. 

Enkuantu produsaun gas husi kampu BU prosesa iha darwin LNG ou norte Australia. Tuir akordu tratadu anterior, Australia benefisiariu husi dezenvolvimentu kampu BU. Australia unilateralmente reklama kontrolu ba kadoras BU tomak inkluindu impostu. Australia mos unilateralmente apoia ka faan gas helium. Gas ida nebee importante tebes ba iha area defeja ninian no prosesa iha darwin LNG. Maibe faan gas helium la hetan konhesementu ou nunka atu fahe ho receitas ba TL. Nunee mos Australia benefisia husi lei karantina. Signifika equipamentus nebee tama no fornese ba kampu BU nee tenke liu husi ou sujeita ba Australia, inklui 90% fornese bem de servisu ba operasaun BU mai deit husi Australia. 

Regime kontratu kampu BU tuir kontratu anterior ou molok difinisaun Fronteira Maritima (FM). Rendimentu fahe ba parte rua:

1. Royalty katak depois faan mina no gas, osan fahe kedan molok deduksaun ba kustus. Nemak hanaran royalty ou first tranche petroleum (FTP). Royalty 10%, husi nee 5% ba governu no 5% ba kontraktor. Husi 5% ba governu sei fahe tutan ba governu TL no Australia ho percentajem 90%:10%. 90% mai TL no 10% ba Australia tuir akordu tasi timor. Enkuantu 5% seluk ba kontraktores.

2. Lukru. Lukru iha BU mai husi produtu rua mak liquidu no gas. Liquidu fahe 50%:50%, katak 50% ba governu no 50% seluk ba kontraktor. Governu 50% sei fahe tutan ba governu TL no Australia ho percentajem 90%:10%. Enkuantu lukru husi faan Gas fahe 60%:40%. Tuir tratadu tasi timor 40% ba governu TL no Autralia. Husi 40% fahe tutan 90% ba TL no 10% ba Australia. Enkuantu 60% ba kontraktores sira. Receitas husi kampu BU mai husi lukru, royalty, no impostu.

Efektividade husi FM wainhira ratifika ona husi parlamentu Australia no TL signifika kampu minarai Kitan, Laminaria Carolina, Bufalo, BU 100% tama iha area TL no timor mak nain ba rekursu, nunee receitas husi kampu hirak nee 100% tama hotu ba kofre estadu.

Implikasaun FM hamosu regime espesial foun iha kampu GS, maibe fo vantajem boot ba TL. Iha kontratu laran karik pipeline gas mai TL sei fahe rendimentu 70% mai TL no 30% ba Australia. No karik pipeline ba Australia receitas sei fahe 80:20. 80% mai TL no 20% ba Australia. Redimentu husi royalty 10% (5% ba governu no 5% ba kontraktores). Husi 5% ba governu sei fahe tutan ba governu TL no Australia ho percentajem 70%:30% signifika 70% mai governu TL no 30% ba governu Autralia tuir akordu regime spesial foun iha kampu GS. Enkuantu 5% seluk ba kontraktores.

Rendimentu seluk ba TL sei mai husi investimentu kustu kapital. Kustu kapital mak tuir kontratu refere hare liu ba kustu peskijas hotu nebee hahu husi explorasaun geolojia, seismiku, ou buka minarai no gas husi inisiu to'o hetan petroleum ou deskobre mina no gas. Kustu kapital tuir maneira kontratu nebee iha kuandu wainhira kompanya investa osan ona hodi buka mina no gas, estadu tenke selu 100% hafoin aumenta tan 127% hanesan kreditu investimentu (investment credit ou IC). Nee maneira kontratu uja hodi atrai ekonomikamente ba kontraktores sira hodi investa iha ita nia rai. Ho partisipasaun 56.56% TL nia iha dezenvolvimentu kampu GS. Signifika TL mos sei benefisia husi instrumentu IC 100 + 127%.

Molok asina FM kampu bufalo ho laminaria pertense ba Australia. Depois de realijasaun FM tuir kontratu sei posibilija empregador ou fornesementu bem servisu iha kampu BU, GS, bufalo, laminaria carolina sei mai husi timor oan, tantu konaba lei karantina, supply equipamentus, apoiu lojestiku bele mai husi TL. Signifika ho realijasaun FM, kontratu anterior balu sei autentikamente la fungsiona, no sei konverta kontratu hirak nee tuir akordu foun nebee governu TL ho Australia konkorda ona, nunee mos nafatin garantia kondisoens equivalente para la bele prejudika kompanya operador no joint venture. Ikus mai TL mak maioria sei benefisia entermu de fahe rezultadu ou rendimentu, royalty, impostu, reimbolsa kustu kapital 100 + 127%, fornesementu bem servisu 90% sei mai husi TL ou sujeita liu husi TL, fornesementu equipamentus no apoiu lojistika, karantina sei liu husi TL, nunee ikus mai sei estimula ita nia ekonomia no garantia sirkulasaun osan iha rai laran, kria kampu servisu, transfer skill no teknolojia ba jovem no foin sae, hamosu enterpreneurship, hamosu kompetividade, hamoris seitor turismu no hotelaria, no garantia liu tan TL nia independente ekonomia wainhira pipeline gas mai TL.

Regime kontratu iha kampu GS depois de FM. Rendimentu husi Upstream rejultadu sei fahe 70% ba TL no 30% ba Australia. Rendimentu downstream exceptu karik IOC ruma hakarak investa entaun konserteja 100% mai TL. Fahe lukru iha kampu GS tuir kontratu sei fahe 50%:50%. 50% ba governu (husi 50% nee sei fahe 70% ba TL no 30% ba Australia) no 50% seluk ba kontraktores (Kompanya Woodside, Osaka, Timor Gap, E.P.,). Kontratu fahe rezultadu sei aplika mos ba produsaun produtu liquidu no gas iha kampu GS. Nemak realidade no lalaok regime kontratu iha kampu GS depois de FM asina. Ho partisipasaun TL iha kampu GS sei hetan benefisiu dobru liu tan ba receitas TL. Rendimentu ba TL iha GS sei mai husi royalty, lukru, impostu, no reimbolsa ba kustu kapital.

Tamba nee rajaun partilha 30% receitas ho Australia mak:

1. Tuir tratadu anterior ou IUA (international unitization agreement) nebee governu rua TL ho Australia konkorda katak bazea ba IUA ita unitija ona kampu GS. Kampu GS quaze 79.9% tama tasi laran Australia nian no 20.1% mak tama mai iha ZOC A, nunee australia mos iha direitu hodi getan receitas wainhira hahu halo explorasaun ba kampu GS.

2. Rezervatoriu mina no gas nebee iha tasi okos (seabed) tuir estudu hatudu katak potensia mina no gas nebee iha kampu GS laos deit tama iha TL nia area maibe okupa, tama ou pertense mos iha zona Australia nia, nunee tuir akordu IUA Australia mos iha direitu hodi hetan receitas ou fahe receitas.

3. Tuir akordu FM rasik nebee asina iha 06 marsu 2018 preve katak FM hamosu regime spesial foun iha kampu GS katak mesmu tuir median line TL mak nain ba kampu GS, maibe husi kontratu rasik preve ona katak TL tenke partilha rekursu ho australia. 

4. Presija intende katak bain-bain iha pratika negosiasaun sempre asosia ho TAKE AND GIVE. Maske wainhira halo produsaun iha GS Australia sei simu receitas 30%. Maibe, pesoal hau nia observasaun 30% nebee sei fo ba Australia mak la se'es husi akordu anterior sira nebee asinadu no halo TL tersandra, inklui hare ba kontestu politika no seguransa mak Australia mos sei fo seguransa no sei asume responsabilidade tomak ba Ita nia tasi liu-liu fo seguransa ba prosesu no aktividades industria sira nebee opera iha tasi Timor, autralia mos sei fo seguransa ba infraestrutura pipeline, hametin kooperasaun bilateral, no reforsa seitor defeza iha regiaun nee. Nunee sei tulun diminui impresaun negativa husi nasaun seluk ou politika externa. Nee kestaun ida estratejiku no sensitivu la halimar, presija tau atensaun seriu. Ita tenke iha vizaun naruk, ho hanoin tenke industrializa, nakonu kompetividade no komersialidade maibe mos tenke reforsa seitor seguransa. "Selae ita hakarak buat hotu, ikus mai ita bele lakon buat hotu".

Depois de ratifikasaun FM no troka ona nota diplomasia entre Australia ho TL, etapa tuir mai kompanya operador ho joint venture sei submete planu dezenvolvimentu kampu GS (Field Development Plan/FDP) ba host country ou governence board hodi tetu, analiza no evalua didiak molok foti desijaun aprova ou veta. Karik host country ou governence board approva no fo lisensa, hafoin kompanya operador ho joint venture bele hahu halo produsaun ba mina no gas iha kampu GS. Governence board sei kompostu husi reprezentante entidade husi nasaun rua TL ho Australia. Governence board nudar orgaun alto, nia knar mak sei kontrola, asegura lisensa no operasaun aktividades tomak nebee sei opera iha kampu GS.

Futuru Aktividade Depois de Ratifikasaun FM?. Investimentu ba kampu GS sei kompostu husi investimentu upstream no downstream. Bain-bain industria minarai aktividades hirak nee iha interkoneksaun, hahu husi upstream, midstream no to'o downstream. Aplikasaun regime fiskal nasaun ida-idak nia diferente, depende ba kondisaun no situasaun aktual nasaun origin nian. Iha ita nia rai, liu-liu aplikasaun kontratu fahe rezultadu ou PSC. Wainhira FM ratifika ona husi parlamentu nasaun rua TL ho Australia sei posibilija hodi deskute klean liu tan sobre futuru dezenvolvimentu kampu GS, inklui aplikasaun Taxa. Importante mak grantia kondisaun equivalente entre kontratores ou kompanya no governu (win-win solution) hodi atrai IOC halo investimentu. 

Iha parte seluk Australia, TL ho kompanya minarai konkorda ona katak produsaun liquidu ou mina sei faan kedan iha plataforma leten, ou iha termu petroleum bain-bain hanaran upstream katak aktividades nebee ligadu ho halo peskija, perfurasaun, produsaun ou foti mina no gas husi tasi ou rai okos. Nunee rezultadu husi faan liquidu sei fahe receitas kedan entre kompanya ho governu. Receitas husi upstream mak sei partilha 70:30%. 70:30% nee fahe intermu de upstream (produsaun mina iha plata forma no faan kedan rezultadu sei fahe 50%:50%. Husi nee 50% ba kontraktores no 50% seluk ba governu. Governu fahe ba parte rua: Timor leste sei hetan 70% no Australia sei simu 30%). Nemak senariu fahe 30:70%. Nee preve ona iha regime foun nebee sei aplika iha dezenvolvimentu kampu GS.

Entertantu iha parte downstream karik IOC ruma hakarak investa hamutuk ho national oil company Timor Gap (TG), koncerteza receitas downstream 100% mai TL tuir regime foun nebee sei aplika. Downstream mak pipeline gas inklui planta LNG ou fasilidade liquifikasaun ba gas natural. Iha parte downstream, kompanya joint venture Osaka no operador Woodside deklara ona katak sira sei la investa iha parte downstream. Nunee TG ho nia parseria mak sei investa iha parte downstream nebee sei involve instalasaun pipeline, hari fasilidade planta LNG no ect.

TL em jeral iha area onshore no offshore inklui kampu GS potensia sei haksubik hela osan $ 378 billioens dollar amerikanu, nunee fo certeza boot ba TL no atrai international oil company (IOC) hodi investa. Durasaun ba explorasaun mina no gas +- 50 anos. Komersialidade kampu GS depende ba rezerva mina no gas, presu no demanda gas iha merkadu. Investimentu kustu ba projeitu pipeline, explorasaun, produsaun, fatin prosesaun produtu ate to'o marketing (kustu downstream no upstream) purvolta $ 10.5 to'o 12 billioens. Maibe wainhira hahu halo produsaun inisiu ba kampu GS kustu rekoperasaun nebee sei hetan premeiru bele to'o $ 28 billioens dollars amerikanu. Estudu simulasaun no sensitivitas projeitu hatudu potensia fundu ba explorasaun sei konsume $ 223 billioens dollars ba nesesidades sira hanesan kestaun teknika, dezenvolvimentu, manutensaun, operasaun no benefisiu fiskal no rendimentu publiku liu $ 47 billioens dollars (Data no informasaun kredibel husi Timor Gap). http://noticias.sapo.tl/portugues/info/artigo/1531899.html

Dalang diak liu tuir pratika industria investimentu parte downstream, diak liu TG bele negosia ho IOC ruma hodi investa nunee sei tulun diminui no share risku. Tamba frankamente ita sei menus de esperiensia, konhesementu no teknolojia. Maibe ho partisipasaun TG iha dezenvolvimentu kampu GS sei tulun tebes timor oan hodi apriende nunee sei professionaliza Timor oan, hasae sira nia skills, hasae sira nia kompetensia, transfer siensia no teknolojia ba joven Timor oan sira no TG rasik. Ikus mai wainhira TG iha ona fundu independente, esperiensadu, kualifikadu, certifikadu, reputasaun excellente iha industria TG mos bele sai kompanya provider ou service ba aktividades industria minarai global hanesan kompanya minarai sira seluk. Tamba nee diak liu hahu agora tenke halo investimentu boot ba rekursu humanu, hamoris treinamentu no kapasitasaun ba jovem no foin sae sira, fo certifikasaun no hasa'e sira nia kompetensia nudar meius hodi prevene infiltrasaun servisu nain husi liur no garantia oportunidade ba Timor oan nudar rekursu nain. God bless TL.

Referensia:

https://www.google.com/search?safe=strict&ei=4ZY9XbuJKfzaz7sPmfKckAM&q=greater+sunrise+oil+and+gas+fields&oq=GREATER+SUNRISE+OIL+FIELS&gs_l=psy-ab.1.1.0i13j0i8i13i30l2.49485.53164..56815...0.0..0.1945.5705.1j3j2j0j1j7-2j1......0....1..gws-wiz.......0i71j35i39j0i67j0j0i22i30j0i203.bOwMy7uLMsA

http://noticias.sapo.tl/portugues/info/artigo/1531899.html

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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timor_Sea_Treaty

https://dfat.gov.au/geo/timor-leste/Pages/australias-maritime-arrangements-with-timor-leste.aspx

https://thediplomat.com/2019/07/timor-leste-parliament-approves-sea-border-treaty-with-australia/

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https://amti.csis.org/timor-sea-boundary-agreement-incomplete-victory/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timor_Gap_Treaty

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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Australia%E2%80%93East_Timor_border

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