domingo, 21 de janeiro de 2018

Political deadlock augurs ill for Timor Leste


Unity has yielded to division as the young nation faces a potentially volatile constitutional crisis


Last year, Timor Leste was held up as a shining example of democratic progress after staging two successful elections after years of volatile and often violent politics. But a post-election constitutional crisis driven by political elite rivalries is putting the young nation to a new crucial test.

Last July, Fretilin and the National Congress of Timorese Reconstruction (CNRT), the country’s two largest political parties, won a combined majority at the parliamentary poll. Fretilin won 29.6% of the vote, accounting for 23 of the unicameral parliament’s 65 seats, while the CNRT ran a close second with 29.4% and 22 seats.

Many expected the two parties to continue their informal power-sharing arrangement that began in 2015 when CNRT chief and former independence leader Xanana Gusmao stepped down as prime minister and chose a Fretilin minister as his successor.

At the time, both agreed to put aside historical differences to form a “national unity” government, ushering in two years of political stability.

But shortly after July’s election CNRT announced it would not join Fretilin in a new coalition. This came as a surprise to many, including Mari Alkatiri, Fretilin’s secretary-general, who publicly predicted before the polls that the unity government would remain in place.

CNRT’s move meant poll winner Fretilin needed another ten seats to form a 33-seat majority government. But only the Democratic Party agreed to join, taking Fretilin’s total seats up to 30, and the two announced they would form a minority government.

President Francisco Guterres, who won election last March and serves as Fretilin’s president, accepted the arrangement and Alkatiri was named prime minister.


But when parliament reconvened in October, three opposition parties – CNRT, People’s Liberation Party (PLP) and Khunto – decided to form what they called a “parliamentary majority alliance”, provocatively the name given to another CNRT-backed coalition that took power in 2007.

Together, the alliance holds a 35-seat majority in parliament. Days later, the minority government put forward its political program in parliament, which was rejected by the opposition coalition. Timor Leste’s constitution rules that if a government’s program is rejected twice then the government should be dissolved.

The minority government refused to hold parliamentary sessions during most of November and December, a move the opposition called “unconstitutional” since the government is obligated to resubmit its program to parliament within 30 days of it first being dismissed. In response, Alkatiri said the opposition coalition was trying to orchestrate a “coup.”

In December, the opposition alliance again voted down the Fretilin-led government’s program, triggering a constitutional crisis and another possible general election in the months ahead.

The causes behind the country’s latest political crisis are debatable. It is not unusual for Timor Leste’s political parties to fail to gain a majority in parliament, a situation usually resolved by forming a majority alliance with other parties.

CNRT’s decision to stop backing a “unity” government with Fretilin seemingly came out of the blue. Indeed, CNRT publicly supported Fretilin’s presidential candidate, Guterres, only a few months before the parliamentary polls.

Damien Kingsbury, professor of international politics at Australia’s Deakin University, contends this is due to recharged enmity between Alkatiri and Gusmao, the two parties’ chiefs. “What Timor-Leste has witnessed is a clash of egos more than a clash of policy or ideology,” he recently wrote.

During the 2006 crisis, where intra-military dissent sparked widespread violence that forced then premier Alkatiri to resign, many suspected Gusmao had a hand in the unrest. But the two leaders’ mutual hostility lay dormant during the “unity” government.

Another explanation contends that political elites thought Alkatiri’s desire for power came at the expense of the national good. When Gusmao resigned as prime minister in 2015, he chose Fretilin’s Rui Maria de Araujo to succeed him.

Araujo, in his fifties, was supposed to represent a shift away from the older, independence-era leaders who have dominated Timor Leste’s politics since independence from Indonesia was achieved in 2002.

“Alkatiri…broke the understanding he had with Gusmao that [the premiership] would be handed to a younger politician,” Kingsbury wrote.

What happens next is anyone’s guess. Now that the minority government has twice failed to pass its program in parliament, Guterres must either call for new elections or ask another party to try to form a government.

There are rumors that CNRT might try to push its own attempt at governing with the support of its coalition partners, ensuring a majority in parliament despite placing second at last July’s election.

But most analysts expect Guterres will call for a new election when parliament reconvenes later this month. Constitutionally, parliament cannot be dissolved until January 22, or six months after the last elections.


Due to various timing issues, including the Easter holiday in the Catholic-majority nation, that could mean the country is without a functioning government for at least five months.

The country currently does not have a budget in place for 2018, which some suggest could precipitate a financial crisis or paralyze the public sector. Until a new budget is passed the state must stick to the 2017 budget, which is badly under-allocated.

Moreover, a lengthy political vacuum could jeopardize the newly agreed bilateral treaty between Timor Leste and Australia over maritime borders and ownership of vast off-shore energy reserves. The treaty requires ratification later this year by Timor Leste’s parliament.

The new uncertainty has cast a cloud over the country’s politics after fair, free and peaceful elections, the first that did not require United Nations supervision. Voter turnout was around 75%, a clear sign Timorese have bought into democracy.

International monitoring groups, meanwhile, recently ranked Timor Leste as Southeast Asia’s most democratic nation.

Now, some fear a return of the political violence last seen in 2006, a murderous outbreak that saw foreign peacekeepers deployed to restore order. For others, it is another indication of the dominance of fractious political elites that many thought and hoped was on the wane.

The possible upcoming elections are “unlikely to reflect the peace and harmony that characterized those of 2017,” Kingsbury predicted.

Yet when compared to events elsewhere in Southeast Asia, the country’s current political crisis still looks rather tame. So far there are no indications that that an unconstitutional seizure of power is on the cards by either the government or opposition.

Alkatiri said late last year that “while some dance in parliament, we shall dance on the streets,” a comment interpreted as a threat to use street protests to counter the opposition coalition’s rejection of its governing program.

Concerns of new violence were eased somewhat when Lere Anan Timur, commander of Timor Leste’s defense force, said he would not tolerate any groups that try to stir instability.

No major public protests have been held, yet. And by most accounts the current constitutional crisis is still likely to be solved legally rather than through force. While Timorese voters may have to spend another day at the ballot box in the months ahead, it’s a preferable scenario to new rounds of deadly duels in the streets.

Photo: 1 - Fretilin party supporters participate in an election campaign rally in Dili, Timor Leste on July 19, 2017. Photo: AFP/Valentino Dariel Sousa. 2 - Timor Leste President Francisco Guterres casts his ballot during the presidential election in Dili, March 20, 2017. Photo: Reuters/Lirio da Fonseca. 3 - Image manipulated by Timor Agora on predictability of holding early elections 2018

East Timor's minority government could fall within days



Only four months after taking office East Timor’s minority government is set to fall, possibly within days, amid tense political manoeuvrings in Australia’s nearest north-western neighbour.

Uncertainty about the make up of a new government could delay ratification of a landmark agreement to develop billions of dollars worth of oil and gas reserves in the Timor Sea.

The government led by Mari Alkatiri from the one-time revolutionary party Fretilin faces a second vote of no confidence in its programs from a three-party opposition alliance which holds a majority of seats in Parliament.

Alkatiri has attempted to delay the vote, claiming opposition parties are attempting to stage a coup, as money for government  programs rapidly runs out.

Defeat in the vote would automatically trigger the government’s fall.


President Francisco “Lu-Olo” Guterres, who is aligned with Fretilin, could dissolve Parliament and call fresh elections to be held within months.

Guterres could also invite the second largest party – the National Congress for Timorese Reconstruction led by former president and prime minister Xanana Gusmao - to form government, with two other smaller opposition parties.

Photo: 1 – Mari Alkatiri, Prime Minister of Timor-Leste. 2 - Image manipulated by Timor Agora on predictability of holding early elections 2018

GMN TV | Jornal Nacional


GMN TV | Grupo Média Nacional

António Guterres hatete katak funu ho Koreia-Norte hanesan "evitável" maibé dame la'ós garantidu

Iha nia konferénsia imprensa dahuluk iha 2018, sekretáriu-jeral ONU, António Guterres, hatán ona ba kestaun sira kona-ba Iraun, konflitu israelo-palestinianu, Koreia-Norte, liberdade imprensa ho Donald Trump.

"Ha'u fiar katak funu [ho Koreia-Norte] hanesan evitável. Ha'u laiha serteza katak bele garante dame", hatete hosi sekretáriu-jeral.

António Guterres, ne'ebé ko'alia ho jornalista sira hafoin aprezenta tiha nia prioridade sira ba tinan 2018 iha Asembleia Jeral, hatudu solidáriu ho dezafiu sira ne'ebé iha hasoru liberdade imprensa iha mundu tomak.

"Iha tempu ida ne'ebé represaun preokupante sira hosi independénsia 'media' nian, ha'u defende nafatin liberdade ho seguransa hosi jornalista sira, iha públiku no liuhosi kompromisu diplomátiku sira", Guterres garanti.

Eis-primeiru-ministru portugés hetan mós pergunta kona-ba deklarasaun foun sira hosi Donald Trump kona-ba nasaun afrikanu balun, El Salvador ho Haiti, hodi konsidera sira hanesan "nasaun laiha kualidade" no husu tanbsá EUA tenki aseita sira nia imigrante.

Jornalista husu karik Guterres sei hamutuk ho embaixador afrikanu sira ne'ebé eziji retrasaun hosi Prezidente EUA nian, maibé sekretáriu-jeral hatán ona hodi hatete de'it katak Trump nega ona deklarasaun ne'e.

Kona-ba EUa, Guterres hatete katak "senti preokupadu" tebes ho final hosi finansiamentu hosi nasaun ne'e ba Ajénsia ONU nian ba Asisténsia ba Refujiadu sira Palestina nian, ne'ebé fó sai iha loron-tersa, hodi esplika katak organizasaun "fó serbisu importante sira" no hanesan importante ba estabilidade rejiaun nian.

Kona-ba konflitu israelo-palestinianu, sekretáriu-jeral hatete katak entende "sofrimentu, dilema ho frustasaun hosi ema palestinianu sira" no nia hatutan katak "ONU kompromete nafatin ho solusaun ida hosi Estadu rua", no sei "la konkorda ba asaun unilateral ruma ne'ebé bele estraga hanoin ne'e".

Husu mós ba Guterres kona-ba protestu sira iha Iraun, ne'ebé halo ona ema na'in 20 resin mate no kaer ona sidadaun hamutuk rihun haat resin.

"Ha'u preokupa ho direitu ema sira nian iha Iraun hodi halo manifestasaun. Hanesan parte importante ida hosi sira nia direitu báziku", nia hatete.

António Guterres aprezenta ona iha loron-tersa iha Asembleia Jeral nia prioridade hamutuk 12 ba tinan 2018, hodi hatete katak hanesan importante liu "unidade no korajen" hodi ultrapasa dezafiu mundial boot sira.

"Ita presiza liután unidade ho korajen hodi hasoru teste urjente liu iha ohin loron nian, halo kalma tauk hosi ema sira ne'ebé ita serbi, no tau mundu iha dalan ida ba futuru di'ak ida", Guterres hatete ba Estadu membru sira.

SAPO TL ho Lusa

Austrália investiga falla téknika iha aviaun Malaysia Airlines


Autoridade australianu sira fó sai, iha loron-sesta ne'e, katak investiga hela kauza sira ne'ebé halo Airbus A330 ida hosi Malaysia Airlines hodi desvia hosi nia dalan, iha loron-kinta, no tenki tuun iha sentru nasaun nian.

Aviaun MH122 hosi kompañia malaiu sai iha loron-kinta iha Sydney ho destinu ba Kuala Lumpur, ho pasajeiru na'in 244 iha aviaun laran, bainhira rejista ona "falla téknika sira iha motor ida", halo aviaun tenki muda dalan no tuun iha sidade Alice Springs.

Iha komunikadu, Autoridade ba Seguransa iha Transporte sira australianu nian indika ona katak sei rona tripulasaun no haree fali prova sira ne'ebé disponível no komunika "problema krítiku ruma ba seguransa".

Iha fatin seluk, transportador Malaysia Airlines subliña ona katak "seguransa la'ós hanesan responsável", haktuir hosi komunikadu ida.

Iha tinan 2014, kompañia aérea sofre ona, durante fulan tolu resin nia laran, asidente rua ne'ebé halo ona ema na'in 537 mate.

Iha loron 08 Marsu, aviaun MH370, ne'ebé halo ligasaun entre Kuala Lumpur ho Pekin, lakon hafoin ema ruma desliga tiha komunikasaun sira no karik aviaun ne'e monu. Seidauk hetan aviaun nia rahun.

Empreza norte-amerikanu Ocean Infinity konkorda ona, iha inísiu fulan ne'e, hodi buka fali aparellu iha zona oseanu Índiku, ne'ebé deskonfia hanesan fatin aviaun monu nian.

Iha Jullu 2014, aviaun MH17, ne'ebé sai hosi Holanda ho destinu ba kapital malaiu, hetan tiru hosi misil ida ne'ebé lansa hosi grupu independentista pró-rusu ida, bainhira semo iha leste Ukránia.

SAPO TL ho Lusa