Husi: Teodoro M. Mota | opiniaun
Investimentu industria mina no
gas fahe ba parte tolu; upstream, midstream no downstream. Saida mak upstream?,
upstream mak aktividade nebee asosia ho explorasaun no produsaun mina no gas ou
bain-bain hanaran aktividade nebee ligadu ho buka no deskoberta mina no gas,
halo perfurasaun ate to’o foti mina no gas husi tasi/rai okos. Midstream mak
aktividade nebee liga husi upstream ba downstream. Aktividade midstream involve
transportasaun, pipeline, tanker mina no gas, no ect. Enkuantu downstream mak
aktividades nebee ligadu ho prosesu likifikasaun ou prosesamentu mina no gas
molok faan ba merkadu. Aktividades downstream involve planta LNG, refinaria,
industria petrokimika no marketing.
Oinsa ho kondisaun TL sobre
futuru dezenvolvimentu kampu greater sunrise?. Tuir informasaun husi Timor Gap
nudar national oil company (NOC) investimentu ba upstream, midstream no downstream
kustu purvolta $ 10.5 billioens to’o $ 12 billioens dollars. Iha parte seluk,
kompanya operador Woodside ho joint venture Osaka deklara ona sira sei la
investa iha parte downstream. Nunee TL via Timor Gap mak sei investa fundu 100%
ba parte downstream. Perguntas mak nee, fundu investimentu husi nebee?.
Enkuantu TL nia fundu petrolifera (FP) nebee rai iha Banku Federal U.S. hela
deit ona $ 16.98 billioens dollars, nunee Timor Gap (TG) sei evita no la uja FP
hodi halo investimentu.
Tamba nee, dalang diak liu tuir
pratika normativa industria minarai, investimentu bele halo husi TG ho nia
partnership sein uja fundu petroleum. Partnership mak sei investa engineering,
procurement and construction (EPC ou EPC plus finance). EPC plus finance
signifika kompanya mak sei investa osan no konstrui projeitu intermu
investimentu iha pipeline, marine no surface facilities ou planta LNG. TG ho
nia parseria bele halo imprestimu (debe ou loan) hodi halo investimentu no sira
sei rekopera fali osan wainhira hahu halo produsaun ba kampu Greater Sunrise ho
potensia rezerva gas 7.7 tcf (trillion cubic feet) no mina 300 MMbbls
kondensadu no LPG. Kompanya sei rekopera osan via profit share, cost recovery
(CR), internal rate of return (IRR), ho instrumentus fiskal seluk. Ho ida nee,
TG tenke servisu makas halo negosiasaun no buka partnership ou international
oil company (IOC) hodi investa iha parte downstream. TG ho kompanya EPC bele
investa iha parte downstream hodi lori pipeline mai TL no asegura receitas 100%
mai TL.
Presija intende iha industria
minarai kompanya atu suporta ou dezenvolve seitor mina no gas fahe ba parte
tolu mak: kompanya owner, kompanya service ho kompanya EPC. EPC mak kompanya
nebee sei sai parseria ho kompanya owner ou Timor Gap. EPC mak kompanya nebee
sei investa fundu ba downstream intermu; prepara, stimula no dezeinu planta LNG
ate to'o konstrusaun planta LNG ou fasilidades likifikasaun gas natural.
Enkuantu kompanya owner bain-bain prepara rai ou fatin ou rekursu hodi harii
fasilidades prosesamentu mina no gas. Kompanya owner mak kompanya nebee nain ba
rekursu mina no gas. Kompanya refere sei partisipa direita hodi halo
explorasaun no produsaun ba mina no gas. Kompanya service mak kompanya nebee
sei responsabilija ba perfurasaun mina no gas. Kompanya service performansia
diak, kualifikadu, ou indentiku ho teknolojia sophistikadu nunee tulun asegura
sucessu ba projeitu, mitiga risku, hahu husi buka mina to'o hetan mina ou foti
mina no gas husi tasi/rai okos. Kompanya service mak hanesan Baker hughes,
Schlumberger, Halliburton, Elnusa, FMC, no ect.
Profit indikator nebee bain-bain
uja iha industria minarai hodi atrai kompanya owner, service ho EPC halo
investimentu mak; net present value (NPV), internal rate of return (IRR),
benefit cost ratio (B/C), no payback of time (POT). Kompanya sempre investa
wainhira valor IRR boot liu minimum actractive of return (MARR). Analizasaun project
economics nudar sasukat ba companya operador, joint venture no host country foti
desijaun ba dezenvolvimentu projeitu kampu GS. Komersialidade kampu greater
sunrise depende ba demanda gas iha merkadu (buyer), presu (price) no rezerva
mina no gas (reserve).
Tuir regime espesial foun iha
kampu greater sunrise preve katak pipeline gas mai TL sei fahe rendimentu 70%
mai TL no 30% ba Australia. Redimentu nebee TL sei hetan wainhira hahu halo
produsaun kampu greater sunrise mak husi royalty 10% (5% ba governu no 5% ba
kompanya). Husi 5% ba governu sei fahe tutan ba governu TL no Australia ho
percentajem 70%:30%. Enkuantu 5% seluk ba kontraktores. Rendimentu seluk TL sei
hetan husi investimentu kustu capital. Kustu kapital mak tuir kontratu hare liu
ba kustu peskijas hotu nebee hahu husi explorasaun geolojia, seismiku, ou buka
minarai no gas husi inisiu to'o hetan petroleum ou deskobre mina no gas. Kustu
kapital tuir maneira kontratu nebee iha kuandu wainhira kompanya investa osan
ona hodi buka mina no gas, estadu tenke selu 100% hafoin aumenta tan 127%
hanesan kreditu investimentu (investment credit ou IC). Nee maneira kontratu
uja hodi atrai ekonomikamente ba IOC sira hodi halo investementu iha ita nia
rai. Ho partisipasaun 56.56% TL nia iha dezenvolvimentu kampu GS, signifika TL
mos sei benefisia husi instrumentu IC 100 + 127%. Karik TG ho kompanya EPC mak
investa iha downstream, entaun konserteja 100% receitas mai TL. Fahe lukru iha
kampu GS tuir kontratu sei fahe 50% ba governu (husi 50% nee sei fahe 70% ba TL
no 30% ba Australia) no 50% seluk ba kontraktores. Kontratu fahe rezultadu sei
aplika mos ba produsaun produtu liquidu no gas iha kampu GS.
Investimentu ba downstream ou
fasilidade planta LNG nebee sei harii iha beasu laos deit produs ou likifika
gas husi kampu greater sunrise (GS) ho potensia rezervatoriu 7.7 tcf (trillion
cubic feet), maibe mos sei produs kampu seluk lokaliza iha tasi Timor
identifikadu ho rezervatoriu gas mak kampu gas Chuditch ho rezerva 0.7 tcf,
kampu gas Kelp Deep ho estimasaun rezerva 8.4 – 13.6 tcf, no potensia gas em
jeral iha teritoriu TL (Fontes informasaun: ANPM). Tuir informasaun husi Timor
Gas ep., Eng. Francisco Monteiro, potensia mina TL emjeral inklui kampu greater
sunrise ho potensia mina equivalente 6,3 billioens barel petroleum nebee bele
produs to’o 50 anos ho valor osan $ 378 billioens dollars. Potensia nee bele
reprezenta fundu explorasaun nebee sei konsume $ 223 billioens dollars ba
nesesidades sira hanesan kestaun teknika, dezenvolvimentu, manutensaun,
operasaun no benefisiu fiskal no rendimentu publiku liu $ 47 billioens dollars
(Fontes informasaun; Timor Gap ep., Eng. Francisco Monteiro deklarasaun iha
noticias sapo.tl, edisaun 18 abril 2019, horas 19:12).
Benefisiu adisional husi
investimentu downstream ou planta LNG no refinaria mak uja fasilidades refere,
laos deit likifika gas ou produs mina husi rai laran, maibe mos bele importa
mina no gas husi nasaun seluk hodi halo prosesamentu molok hodi ba
merkadu. Ho partisipasaun TL via Timor Gap iha kampu greater sunrise sei
hetan benefisiu dobru liu tan ba receitas TL. Rendimentu ba governu TL sei mai
husi royalty, lukru, impostu, no reimbolsa ba kustu capital, domestic market
obligation (DMO) no ect. Enkuantu kompanya operador ho joint venture sei hetan
benefisiu husi profit share, cost recovery (CR), internal rate of return (IRR),
no instrumentus fiskal seluk. God bless TL.
Referensia:
[1] Journal no livru : Petroleum
fiscal systems and contracts, Hamburg, 2010.
[2] Internet web: http://noticias.sapo.tl/portugues/info/artigo/1531899.html
[3] Internet
web:http://web.anpm.tl/
[4] California Energy
Commission. “Liquefied Natural Gas Safety.” Asesu dia 15 Oktober 2007, web:http://www.energy.ca.gov/lng/safety.html
[5] Internet
web:http://www.tatoli.tl/2019/05/31-marsu-2019-fundu-pertoleu-sae-ba-biliaun-us1698/
[6] Internet
web:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mHUb01eKH0E
[7] TVTL, GMNTV no Radio (8
Dezembru 2018): “Semináriu nasional kona-ba asuntus relasionadus ho fronteiras
marítimas no nia impaktu ba atividades petrolíferas.”, Sentru Konvensaun Dili
(CCD).
[8] TVTL, GMNTV no Radio (8
Janeiru 2019): “Aprezentasaun husi Chefi negosiador, ANPM, Timor Gap ep.,
kona-ba asuntus relasionadus ho fronteiras marítimas no sosa asoens
conocophillips no shell energy.”, Parlamentu Nasional (PN).
[9] Internet
web:https://www.facebook.com/TimorSeaBoundary/
[10] Atlantic LNG (2007).
Web: http://www.atlanticlng.com/
[11] Internet
web:https://www.timorgap.com/databases/website.nsf/vwall/home
[12] internet web;
http://gmntv.tl/en/economia/2019/05/explorasaun-kampu-gs-sei-fo-servisu-ba-timor-oan-10-000/?fbclid=IwAR0gzQUKbZh6zxMHkabdjdZiQSVp5SFc2SKkhTn8HsxbtPrtYSnfKhQZX2g