Projeitu tasi mane ekonomikamente
viavel waihira pipeline mai TL. Projeitu tasi mane nebee involve suai supply
base, refinaria betano, planta LNG beasu, sentru elektriku betano no auto
estrada suai-beasu nudar prekondisaun hodi asegura pipeline mai TL. Estudu
pipeline mai TL tama ona ba faze FEED (front end engineering desing). Wainhira
tama ona faze FEED signifika hakat liu ona conceptual desing no estudu
feasibility. Iha faze nee, molok hahu EPC (engineering, procurement and
construction), estudu barak nebee hala'o ona hodi buka hatene problema teknika,
inklui estimasaun kustu investimentu ba projeitu pipeline. Rezultadu husi nemak
hanaran "FEED package" nebee kontenta dokumentus holistiku nudar baze
husi oferesaun kontratu EPC ou EPC plus finance.
1. Pipeline
Teknikamente pipeline gas husi
kampu greater sunrise (GS) mai TL viável. Tuir data no estudu seismiku
earthquakes hatudu katak rai nakdoko iha Tasi Timor la liu magnitude 6, iha
tinan 1962 rai nakdoko iha tasi Timor iha 5.0-5.9 magnitude husi ne’eba kedas
too mai agora rai nakdoko husi 0.6-4.9 magnitude deit. Ezemplu iha Malampaya,
Turkey, Sumatra, Nipónika rai nakdoko liu magnitude 7, maibe realidade pipeline
la tohar. Nunee pipeline mai TL teknikamente viavel. Distansia pipiline GS mai
TL 233 km
no GS ba Darwin-Australia 500
km. Estudu husi Petronas hatudu kustu pipeline ba
Australia $ 1.77 biliaun no mai TL $ 1.06 biliaun. Nunee pipeline mai TL
ekonómikamente Komersial. Bele asesu Relatóriu Estudu DNV-Norway no Petronas
(Fontes informasaun; ANPM no Timor Gap).
Saida mak pipeline?. Pipeline mak
pipa hodi transfer gas husi kampu greater sunrise (GS) mai planta LNG Beasu ho
distansia 233 km
no kustu pipeline total $ 1.06 billioens dollars. Planta LNG mak atu likifika
gas ba faze liquidu hodi uza ba produtu oin-oin. Refinaria mak fabrika ou
fasilidade industria hodi produs mina (crude oil) sai produtu petroleum nebee
bele uja direitamente ou produtu oin-oin nebee sai nesesidade baziku ba
industria petrokimika. Produtu refinaria mak gasoline, combustivel diesel,
kerosene, elpije, mina nafta, no produtu seluk. Planu governu TL refinaria sei
hari iha Betanu. Enkuantu suai supply base signifika fatin lojistiku ou apoiu
lojistiku ba aktividades industria nebe opera iha teritoriu TL, tantu
aktividade industria iha tasi laran nomos iha rai maran. Investimentu kustu ba
instalasaun pipeline, hari planta LNG no refinaria, prosesaun ou surface facilities
to’o marketing total $ 7.9 billioens dollars no investimentu kustu ba
esplorasaun, perfurasaun, ekstraksi ou foti mina no gas husi tasi okos no
marine facilities total $ 2.6 billioens dollars (Fontes informasaun; Timor Gap).
Molok hahu konstrusaun pipeline,
importante mak governu TL tenke buka kompanya minarai sira nebe kualifikasaun
excellente, iha certifikasaun no rekonhesementu internasional, iha esperiensia
diak sobre instalasaun kadoras iha tasi laran (subsea pipeline) no rai maran,
susesu iha projeitu boot barak iha mundu ligasaun ho industria mina no gas,
liu-liu projeitu boot sira nebee iha deep water, atlantiku, gulf mexico, rusia
no ect, para asegura no resposabilija ho diak ba pipeline nebee sei instal iha
tasi klean timor purvolta 2800 metru ho distansia 233 km. Tuir informasun husi
Timor Gap no ANPM kompanya Allseas mak sei responsabilija ba instalasaun
pipeline husi kampu gas greater sunrise mai TL. Kompanya Allseas konsidera
nudar global lider ba instalasaun pipeline ou konstrusaun pipa gas iha tasi
laran, famouzu, kualifikadu no konhesidu iha industria (allseas.com). Tuir
informasaun instalasaun ba pipeline sei hahu iha tinan 2020 ba leten.
Iha faktores balun nebee
importante tebes presija konsidera wainhira dada pipeline gas: buka distansia
ou rute nebee besik nunee bele hamenus pipa, safety no ekonomis, pipa nebee uja
atu supply gas tenke tuir estandarte internasional industria mina no gas, pipa
tenke bele atasi presaun husi tasi ben, pipa tenke instal dok husi laloran
tasi, inklui instal dok husi area tasi nebee fasil atu longsor. Ho ida nee
presija tebes estudu seismiku, peskija topografiku iha tasi laran (bathymetric)
nebee klaru para asegura hodi determina rute no tasi nia klean nebee akurat.
Pipa nebee instal tenke hare mos ba nia elevasaun, friction lose (pressaun gas
nebee lakon durante transmisaun gas), estabelijasaun no kondisaun rai,
enviromentu no isu legal, iha parte seluk isu politik no seguransa, ect.
Faktores sira nee hotu presija konsidera no kalkula hotu iha planu dezenvolvimentu
projeitu, nunee bele tulun diminui risku no garantia viabilidade de projeitu.
2. LNG
Saida mak LNG?. LNG mak
abreviasaun husi Liquefied Natural Gas. LNG hetan husi pemampatan no cooling
gas natural to’o pontu kiik liu (due poit) ho aproximasaun -1600C (-2600F). Natural gas
signifika gas nebee fasil atu sunu, komponentes importante nebee eziste iha
natural gas mak husi metana ho volume liu 80%, inklui komponente etana,
propane, butane, nitrogen no helium. Produtu helium importante tebes uja ba
seitor defeza. Gas natural mosu iha rai nia okos no dala ruma mistura ho mina.
Benefisiu direita husi mina no gas natural mak bele uja hanesan kobustivel no
bele produs produtu ou sasan kimika hanesan pupuk, sepatu, roupa, lem, triplex,
tinta, plastiku, roda, bola, CD, tasu, oklu, payung, pasta, mangeira, fiu
eletrisidade, fatin cas ahi ou terminal ahi, metro, pinsel, sasan halimar ba
labarik kiik, supeita, kadeira, butyl ou fatin mina morin, camera dijital, no
ect. Sasan ou equipamentus sira nee hotu produs husi mina no gas natural.
Signifika sei hamoris industria no ekonomia husi area nee.
Meksiko, Korea, China, Japan, no
ect, nudar nasaun importador gas. Agora dadaun gas nebee produs iha kampu Bayu
Undun supply tuir pipa ba Darwin LNG, depois liquifika molok faan ba Jepan.
Merkadu mundial konaba LNG sei kontinua dezenvolve tebes. Enkuantu iha
Indonesia investimentu ba LNG dominante liu investimentu ba mina. Indonesia
potensia ho rekursu gas natural. Data 2015 hatudu Indonesia nia rezerva provadu
gas ou proven reserve total 98 tcf (trillion cubic feet). Iha asia Indonesia
sai nasaun rangkin terseiru eksportir LNG depois Australia no Qatar. Indonesia
nia LNG mai husi kampu Arun, Bontang no Tangguh. Sira nia LNG faan ba China,
Korea selatan, Taiwan, Jepan no ect. Signifika demanda LNG sei massiva. Nasaun
barak mak sei presija tebes LNG tamba nesidade no ekonomia rai laran,
elektrisidade, transportasaun, gas ba nesesidade uma laran hodi tein, hotel,
restaurante, no ect. Inklui nasaun sira eropa mos sai konsumedor ba LNG.
Signifika futuru mai presu LNG autentikamente sei sae makas. Nunee nesesidade
merkadu LNG sei massiva.
Hare ba demanda no kresimentu
nesesidade LNG fo certeza no posibilija TL hodi produs kampu gas greater
sunrise nebe ho potensia rezervatoriu gas purvolta 7.7 tcf (trillion cubic feet)
no mina 300 MMbbls (kondensadu no LPG) ho kampu gas seluk nebee identifikadu ho
rezerva gas produs hodi asegura sustentabilidade receitas ba kofre estadu.
Wainhira TL produs ona LNG, ita bele faan ba nasaun seluk, nunee mos bele
utilija ba nesesidade rai laran para tulun dudu ekonomia rai laran no redus
importasaun gas husi nasaun seluk.
3. Planta LNG
Molok hari planta LNG, presija
tebes prepara uluk Intel-industri para responde ba susesu mega projeitu refere.
Intel-industria mak akumulasaun no partisipasaun husi kompanya sira nebee
responde ba projeitu LNG. Kompanya sira nee tenke iha kualifikasaun,
certifikasaun no rekonhesementu internasional iha industria tantu minarai,
konstrusaun civil, mekaniku, petrokimika, inklui kompanya supply equipamentus,
kompanya semen, beton, supply elektrisidade, no ect. Para asegura susesu ba
mega projeitu. Elektrisidade ou primover importante tebes ba operasaun
refinaria no planta LNG.
i. Planta LNG depende ba medida
no montante equipamentus, presija rai ho luan kuaje to’o 1-2 km2 nunee bele rai
sasan no equipamentus mekaniku, tanki-tanki akumulasaun gas, jenerator no
equipamentus seluk tan. Fatin ba fasilidade refere tenke besik ba tasi para
hamenus distansia supply gas ba ro tanker.
ii. Planta LNG besik tasi presija
strutura rai nebee bele retain equipamentus no todan durante tempu naruk no
permukaan rai la bele tun ou la bele iha mudansa ba rai.
iii. Fatin fasilidade LNG tenke
hetan asesu diak husi tanker-tanker LNG ho nia naruk 300 meter ho tasi nia
klean minimal 15-20 meter
para ro bele sadere. Inklui presija mos hari fatin alfandega ba ro sira nebee
postpone posibililidade bele hari besik iha dermaga konstruksi.
iv. Rai nakdoko, anin boot,
inundasaun ou tsunami bele kauja dejastre ba infrastruktura fasilidade planta
LNG. Ho ida nee, selesaun ba enviromentu tenke hare didiak para hadok husi
insidenti geofisika nebee ekstrim. Tamba nee presija tebes estudu sensitivitas
LNG para hare didiak no hili fatin nebee akurat. TL nia rai secara seismik
aktif tamba hamosu husi lempeng tektonika India-Australia no Eurasia nebee
nafatin halai kuaje 7 cm
kada anum (Atlantic LNG, 2007).
v. Fatin fasilidade LNG tenke dok
husi rai nebee protezidu, stratejiku no sensitivu ho rajaun para nafatin
konserva enviromentu nebee naturalmente diak, prezerva kultura no ekonomia.
vi. Atu maksimija empregador husi
rai laran no fo benefisiu diak ba Timor oan, mak fasilidade planta LNG tenke
liga ho linha transportasaun nebee diak, inklui sentru aktividade servisu. Karik
desijaun hili fatin hari fasilidade LNG seidauk klaru, entaun diak liu hala’o
uluk estudu viabilidade no peskija sientifika hodi hetan fatin nebee suitable
hodi harii planta LNG.
4. Refinaria no Fasilidade
Refinaria
Saida mak refinaria?, refinaria
mak fabrika ou fasilidade industria hodi produs crude oil sai produtu petroleum
nebe bele uja direitamente ou produtu oin-oin nebee sai nesesidade baziku ba
industria petrokimika. Produtu nebee produs husi refinaria mak gasoline,
combustivel diesel, kerosene, elpije, mina nafta, no produtu seluk. Hari
fasilidade refinaria importante hodi estimula, dezenvolve no esplora liu tan
potensia mina nebee eziste iha teretoriu Timor laran tantu iha tasi laran no
rai maran. Inklui refinaria bele simu mina husi nasaun vizinu sira hodi halo
prosesaun molok lori ba merkadu.
Saida mak fasilidade refinaria?.
Fasilidade refinaria signifika kontruksi kompleksu nebee kompostu husi parte ou
equipamentus barak nebee hamrik mesak. Etapa konstrusaun projeitu refinaria
teknikamente fahe ba fase rua no subfase nebee presija han tempu naruk bele
to’o tinan, mak hanesan: 1). Preparasaun rai hodi harii fasilidade refinaria.
2).Transportasaun, mobilijasaun no prosesaun instalasi konstruksi, fatin rai produtu
no fatin serbisu konstrusaun fasilidade alfandega, inklui halo teste ba sistema
no equipamentus. Konstrusaun fasilidade refinaria iha parte sul tasi Timor
Leste sei presija harii fasilidade seluk hanesan penunjang para tulun aselera
projeitu refere.
i. Preparasaun fatin kompostu
husi: asesu estrada, fasilidade provizoriu, kamp konstrusaun, elektrisidade,
be, inklui equipamentus nebee uja ba halo beton no harii dermaga konstrusaun.
ii. Fasilidade sekunder: presija
hari fatin helikopter ou aviaun hodi para, jerador listri, turbing gas,
laboratorium, fatin administrasaun, hari uma permanente, fasilidade ba
empregador no fasilidade hodi jere foer.
iii. Modul-modul hari
konstruksaun fasilidade refinaria: kompostu husi area simu mina, separasaun
liquidu, meteran no redusaun presaun gas, sistema safety ho ground flares,
unidade dehidrasaun be husi gas inklui adorpsi karbon, equipamentus halo
malirin no liquidu ba gas, LPG, residu no fatin rai gas ho temperatur nebee
kiik.
5. Risku (Challenge)
i. Risku ambiental. Mega projeitu
sei lori impaktu negativu ba ambiental, projeitu nee sei kria potensia ba
emisaun karbon ba atmosfir no sei kria material polusaun hanesan hydrogen
sulfide (H2S), mina, lisu, be foer no lisu seluk ho kuantidade boot nebee bele
estraga kondisaun enviromentu. Ezemplu risku ba biodiversidade no ekolojia tasi
nebe akontese iha dezastre Deepwater Horizon mina nakfakar estraga animal no
rikusoin iha tasi laran. Husi nee hakarak fo rekomendasaun ba governu: katak
presija tenke reve lei konaba Analisis Dampak Lingkungan (AMDAL) no presija
dezenvolve modul nebee komprehensivu hodi hala’o AMDAL ba projeitu. AMDAL tenke
kompostu planu jere eviromentu nebee detailu esplika konaba jere no atuasaun
polusaun, jestaun planu ba dejastre no mekanismu hodi kontrola no minimija
impaktu negativu tantu kultura no sosial. Objektivu reve lei hodi kontrola
polusaun no difini klaru konaba konstraint ou batasan zat-zat polusaun, inklui
CO2, gas, no material kimika nebee estraga tasi ben, kualidade be no estruktura
rai, inkui isu konaba polusaun sunu gas. Lei mos tenke define klaru sobre
dezvantelasaun projeitu depois de perioudu operasaun hodi asegura katak labele
husik hela foer, material kimika no poizon sira seluk nebee bele hafoer no
estraga rikusoin sira iha teritoriu TL. Rekomendasaun seluk kada lei nebe halo
tenke esplika klaru konaba nia sensaun, nunee karik kompanya ou empregador
kontra lei bele submete an ba justisa no kumpri tuir lei nebe vigor.
ii. Risku ba isu sosial no
kultura. Maske projeitu planta LNG no refinaria lori implikasaun pozitivu,
maibe nia mos lori impaktu negativu ba povu TL tamba projeitu refere sei fo
“ameasa” ba ema sira nebee nain ba rai, fo risku ba sira nia vida loron-loron
no bele estraga fatin sagradu nebee reprezenta valor tradisional. Inklui
prejensa empregador no kompanya husi estranjeiru sei fo ameasa ba ekonomia
lokal hanesan aktividades peskas no agrikultura, no sei hasa’e numeru
vulnerabilidade ba sirklu feto, idouzu no labarik foin sae. Husi nee hakarak fo
rekomendasaun ba governu: katak direitu ba rai nain no propriadade seluk tenke
define klaru, ho rekonesementu no direitu ba rai kada pessoa inklui sistema
nain tradisional. Ho ida nee, presija revizaun ba lei konaba rai no lei ba area
protejidu. Desijaun saida deit konaba fatin projeitu tenke hahu uluk ho analija
no kordenasaun kompostu husi tradisaun, sosial, kultura, fatin sagradu, rai no
faktores seluk nebee integra iha rekomendasaun para ikus mai bele atasi impaktu
negativu ba projeitu. Tamba nee presija involvimentu aktivu husi sosiadade
sivil no lokal. Iha parte seluk, rekuirementu kontraktual kompanya tenke
konstitui ho arbitrase nebee sei mosu tamba influensia husi empregador
estranjeiru no liu-liu empregador husi estranjeiru sira tenke respeitu no
valorija valor no kultura lokal, inklui iha obrigasaun tenke hakruk ba tribunal
no lei nebee vigor iha TL. Ho ida nee, bele minimize konflitu entre empregador
lokal no internasional. Rekomendasaun seluk, entidade governu tenke tau
atensaun didiak ba isu jeneru para la bele kria diskriminasaun iha servisu
fatin.
iii. Risku seluk mak sei laiha
rendementu ba taxa ne’ebe signifikante, dependente maka’as ba industria
petrolifera, kuaze servisu hotu fo ba ema estranjeiru bele prejudika vida
sosial no estabilidade, estraga meiu ambiente, muda ema husi sira nia
rain-rasik no projeitu sei okupa rai no tasi hodi limite to’os nain no
peskadores sira hodi kaer ikan no ect, asidente katastrofiku, violasaun ba
diretus humanu no komunidade bele prejudika impresaun seguransa no politika,
projetu enklave sei la rekruta ema Timor-oan ka aumenta infrastrutura lokal ka
industria. Konsekuensia sira ne’e tipiku tebes ba projetu petroleu iha nasaun
barak no akontese nunee. Tamba nee presija antesipa no tenke iha planu
integradu hodi kombate risku hirak nee. Skenariu hirak temi ona iha leten
sei la akontese, depende ba asaun no boa vontade husi entidade nasaun nia tenke
involve no partisipa aktivu komesa husi governu, kompanya minarai, lideransa no
autoridade lokal, sosidade civil, lideransa adat, igreija, forsa FFDTL, PNTL,
no kada individu tenke preparadu kontribui no promove paz, dame, estabilidade
no unidade nasional hodi simu no kontribui ba projeitu pipeline, hari
fasilidade planta LNG, refinaria no industria derivativa seluk para asegura
katak mega projeitu refere sei lori benefisiu no oportunidade boot ba ekonomia
TL.
iv. Risku ba equipamentus pipeline,
fasilidades planta LNG no refinaria signifika katak iha industria mina no gas
nafatin hare ba efektividade kustu projeitu (cost effective) no investimentu
projeitu to’o tempu naruk. Tamba nee identifikasaun ba rezervatoriu mina no gas
(proven reserve) importante tebes hodi optimiza no garantia kontinuidade
operasaun fasilidades planta LNG to’o tempu naruk. Wainhira kampu greater
sunrise produs besik remata, presija tebes identifikasaun kampu petroleum seluk
hodi asegura kontinuidade operasaun equipamentus no fasilidades planta LNG.
Tamba rekursu mina no gas nebee limitadu no hotu sei prejudika
equipametus planta LNG sai frujen, barailu, at, ikus mai abandona. Tamba nee
bain-bain iha pratika real industria minarai, presija tebes investimentu
massiva ba aktividades explorasaun. Aktividades explorasaun signifika
aktividades sira nebee ligadu ho buka mina no gas, ikus mai hatene TL nia proven
reserve mina no gas hodi asegura kontinuidade no sustentabilidades industria
petrolifera.
v. Risku seluk mak “tusan ou
debe”, tamba aumenta tusan ou debe ba TL. Fundu petrolifera (FP) agora dadaun
rai iha Banku Federal U.S hela deit $ 16.98 billioens dollars, enkuantu tusan
ba nasaun aumenta ba bei-beik, TL nia debe hamutuk $ 452 millioens hodi
konstrui estrada iha teritoriu TL. Iha parte seluk receitas domestika TL nia
sei kiik tebes. Dadus hatudu 2018 ita nia receitas domestika kobra deit $ 198
millioens dollar amerikanu. Tamba nee karik OJE kada anum mak kontinua sae to'o
$ 1.4 billioens dollars mak estimasaun FP bele hotu iha tinan 12 ou 13 nia
laran. Risku tusan sei mai husi tan imprestimu nebee Timor Gap halo hodi
investa ba projeitu pipeline no hari fasilidade planta LNG. Ho partisipasaun TL
via Timor Gap 56.56% iha kampu GS, TL tenke garante: tusan atu lori pipeline
mai TL, tusan selu kompanya operador woodside, kompanya joint venture kompanya
Osaka no parseria seluk, inklui fundu kontijensia ba seluk risku tomak 56.56%,
fundu manutensaun no ect. Apakah ida nemak ita hanaran risku investimentu ba
TL?. Se nunee, alternative no dalang stratejiku tuir pratika industria minarai
mak governu TL via Timor Gap bele negosia fali ho international oil company
(IOC) ruma para investa iha upstream, midstream no downstream nunee bele
minimize no share risku.
Tuir informasaun husi Timor Gap,
governu TL sei evita no la uja fundu petrolifera (FP) nebee agora hela deit ona
$ 16.98 billioens dollars nudar oxigeniu ba vida nasaun TL. Enkuantu tuir
estudu husi Timor Gap nudar national oil company (NOC) investimentu ba upstream,
midstream no downstream kustu purvolta $ 10.5 billioens to’o $ 12 billioens
dollars nunee Timor Gap sei la uja FP hodi halo investimentu. Investimentu bele
mai husi partnership ou debe (loan). Kompanya no partnership mak sei investa engineering,
procurement and construction plus finance (EPC plus finance). EPC plus finance
signifika kompanya mak sei investa osan no konstrui projeitu intermu
investimentu iha pipeline, marine no surface facilities. Kompanya operador, joint
venture no Timor Gap bele halo imprestimu hodi halo investimentu no sira sei
hetan fali osan wainhira hahu halo produsaun ba kampu Greater Sunrise ho
potensia rezerva gas 7.7 tcf (trillion cubic feet) no mina 300 MMbbls
kondensadu no LPG. Kompanya sei rekopera osan via profit share, cost recovery
(CR), internal rate of return (IRR), ho insentiva seluk.
6. Benefisiu ou Vantajem
i. Pipeline gas mai TL, harii
konstruksaun planta LNG no refinaria sei kria kampu serbisu ba timor oan barak
bele to’o mil ba pozisaun tekniku no non-tekniku. Esperiensia hatudu iha nasaun
seluk bele absorve kampu serbisu ba ema hamutuk 12000 tantu ema husi estudu
area minarai no non-minarai. Tuir informasaun husi Timor Gap ep., Eng.
Francisco Monteiro, pipeline gas mai TL sei kria kampu servisu bele kobre to’o
10.000 pessoas (Fontes informasaun; Timor Gap ep., Eng. Francisco Monteiro
deklarasaun iha noticias gmntv.tl, edisaun 12 maio 2019).
ii. Vantajem ekonomia rai laran:
vantajem premeiru mosu kedan wainhira komesa hari konstrusaun ba projeitu,
konstrusaun pipeline nebee dada husi tasi laran to’o mai rai maran inklui
aktividade seluk. Aktividade hirak nee sei konsume fundus billioens dollar
amerikanu. Montante hirak mak ekonomia timor nia sei hetan tulun hadia povu nia
moris. Osan ba emprejariu lokal no osan ba empregador timor oan rasik hodi
hadia rendimentu iha sira nia moris. Vantajem seluk hetan husi jasa-jasa
durante konstrusaun projeitu no sosa sasan husi rekursu lokal. Maneira seluk
nebee fasil hodi tulun dudu ekonomia lokal wainhira projeitu hahu mak
emprejariu no povu TL prepara hahan no uma ba empregador no kompanya husi
estranjeiru hodi aluga ou hola uma, hotel, modo, hahan iha restaurante no
nesesidade loron-loron nebee produs no prepara husi negosiu lokal. Ikus mai sei
estimula ekonomia rai laran no tulun hadia povu nia moris.
iii. Vantajem taxa ba governu:
vantajem fijiku nebee hetan husi dezenvolvimentu projeitu mak vantajem taxa.
Vantajem taxa mak rendimentu nebee governu TL hetan husi empregador no
emprejariu tantu nasional no internasional. Taxa nebee emprejariu no empregador
sei selu ba governu, inklui aktividades ekonomia nebee iha posibilidade sei
mosu durante periodu konstrusaun no operasaun projeitu. Konsekuensia taxa husi
aktividade projeitu upstream no downstream depende kondisaun taxa nebe governu
TL prepara. Apakah sei kria taxa iha rai laran?, apakah sei halo regulamentu
foun konaba taxa ba fasilidade?, no ect.
iv. Benefisiu direita husi mina
no gas natural mak bele uja hanesan kobustivel no bele produs produtu ou sasan
kimika hanesan pupuk, sepatu, roupa, lem, triplex, tinta, plastiku, roda, bola,
CD, tasu, oklu, payung, pasta, mangeira, fiu eletrisidade, fatin cas ahi ou
terminal ahi, metro, pinsel, sasan halimar ba labarik kiik, supeita, kadeira,
butyl ou fatin mina morin, camera dijital, no ect. Sasan ou equipamentus sira
nee hotu produs husi mina no gas natural. Signifika sei hamoris industria no
ekonomia husi area nee.
v. Benefisiu seluk mak bele
estimula no garantia sustentabilidade industria petroleum ate futuru.
Fasilidade planta LNG nebee sei harii iha beasu laos deit produs ou likifika
gas husi kampu greater sunrise (GS) ho potensia rezervatoriu 7.7 tcf (trillion
cubic feet), maibe mos sei produs kampu seluk lokaliza iha tasi Timor
identifikadu ho rezervatoriu gas mak kampu gas Chuditch ho rezerva 0.7 tcf,
kampu gas Kelp Deep ho estimasaun rezerva 8.4 – 13.6 tcf, no potensia gas em
jeral iha teritoriu TL (Fontes informasaun: ANPM). Tuir informasaun husi Timor
Gas ep., Eng. Francisco Monteiro, potensia mina TL emjeral inklui kampu greater
sunrise ho potensia mina equivalente 6,3 billioens barel petroleum nebee bele
produs to’o 50 anos ho valor osan $ 378 billioens dollars. Potensia nee bele
reprezenta fundu explorasaun nebee sei konsume $ 223 billioens dollars ba
nesesidades sira hanesan kestaun teknika, dezenvolvimentu, manutensaun,
operasaun no benefisiu fiskal no rendimentu publiku liu $ 47 billioens dollars
(Fontes informasaun; Timor Gap ep., Eng. Francisco Monteiro deklarasaun iha
noticias sapo.tl, edisaun 18 abril 2019, horas 19:12).
vi. Benefisiu husi profit
rezultadu faan mina no gas kampu GS. Komersialidade kampu GS depende ba rezerva
mina no gas, presu no demanda gas iha merkadu. Investimentu kustu ba projeitu
ou Capex (capital expenditure); explorasaun, perfurasaun, produsaun, pipeline
no fatin prosesamentu produtu ate to'o marketing ou hanaran upstream, midstream
no downstream purvolta $ 10.5 billioens to'o 12 billioens dollars. Maibe
wainhira hahu halo produsaun inisiu ba kampu GS kustu rekoperasaun nebee sei
hetan premeiru bele to'o $ 28 ate $ 54 billioens dollars amerikanu, nunee fo
certeza boot ba TL no atrai international oil company (IOC) hodi investa no
halo produsaun hodi asegura fundu petroleum ba jerasaun agora no futuru (Fontes
informasaun; Timor Gap ep., Eng. Francisco Monteiro deklarasaun iha noticias
gmntv.tl, edisaun 12 maio 2019).
vii. Benefisiu adisional husi planta
LNG no refinaria mak uja fasilidades laos deit likifika gas ou produs mina husi
rai laran, maibe mos bele importa mina no gas husi nasaun seluk hodi halo
prosesamentu molok hodi ba merkadu.
viii. Benefisiu intermu fahe
produsaun iha kampu greater sunrise (GS). Profit indikator nebee bain-bain uja
iha industria minarai mak; net present value (NPV), internal rate of return
(IRR), benefit cost ratio (B/C), no payback of time (POT). Kompanya sempre
investa wainhira valor IRR boot liu minimum actractive of return (MARR).
Analizasaun project economics nudar sasukat ba companya operador, joint venture
no host country foti desijaun ba dezenvolvimentu projeitu kampu GS. Ho
realijasaun fronteira maritima (FM) hamosu regime espesial foun iha kampu GS,
maibe fo vantajem boot ba TL. Tuir akordu FM preve katak pipeline gas mai TL
sei fahe rendimentu 70% mai TL no 30% ba Australia. Redimentu husi royalty 10%
(5% ba governu no 5% ba kontraktores). Husi 5% ba governu sei fahe tutan ba
governu TL no Australia ho percentajem 70%:30%. Enkuantu 5% seluk ba
kontraktores. Rendimentu seluk TL sei hetan husi investimentu kustu capital.
Kustu kapital mak tuir kontratu hare liu ba kustu peskijas hotu nebee hahu husi
explorasaun geolojia, seismiku, ou buka minarai no gas husi inisiu to'o hetan petroleum
ou deskobre mina no gas. Kustu kapital tuir maneira kontratu nebee iha kuandu
wainhira kompanya investa osan ona hodi buka mina no gas, estadu tenke selu
100% hafoin aumenta tan 127% hanesan kreditu investimentu (investment credit ou
IC). Nee maneira kontratu uja hodi atrai ekonomikamente ba kontraktores sira
hodi halo investementu iha ita nia rai. Ho partisipasaun 56.56% TL nia iha
dezenvolvimentu kampu GS, signifika TL mos sei benefisia husi instrumentu IC
100 + 127%.
ix. Benefisiu regime kontratu iha
kampu greater sunrise (GS) depois de Fronteira Maritima (FM). Rendimentu upstream
pipeline gas mai TL rejultadu sei fahe 70% ba TL no 30% ba Australia. Downstream
exceptu karik IOC ruma hakarak investa entaun konserteja 100% mai TL. Fahe
lukru iha kampu GS tuir kontratu sei fahe 50% ba governu (husi 50% nee sei fahe
70% ba TL no 30% ba Australia) no 50% seluk ba kontraktores. Kontratu fahe
rezultadu sei aplika mos ba produsaun produtu liquidu no gas iha kampu GS.
Nemak lalaok regime kontratu iha kampu GS depois de FM asina. Ho partisipasaun
TL iha kampu GS sei hetan benefisiu dobru liu tan ba receitas TL. Rendimentu ba
TL iha GS sei mai husi royalty, lukru, impostu, no reimbolsa ba kustu capital, domestic
market obligation (DMO) no ect. Enkuantu kompanya sei hetan benefisiu husi profit
share, cost recovery (CR), internal rate of return (IRR), no instrumentus
fiskal seluk.
Ikus mai TL mak maioria sei
benefisia entermu de fahe rezultadu ou rendimentu, royalty, impostu, reimbolsa
kustu kapital 100 + 127%, fornesementu bem servisu 90% sei mai husi TL ou
sujeita liu husi TL, fornesementu equipamentus no apoiu lojistika, karantina
sei liu husi TL, ikus mai TLNG sei tulun diversifika rendimentu ba estadu,
hamosu multiplier effect boot ba ekonomia nasaun, transfer teknolojia,
konhesementu, no skills ba jovem no foin sae sira, hamoris investimentu seitor
privadu, hamoris investimentu iha area turismu, edukasaun, saude, peskas,
agrikultura, hotelaria, infrastruktura, emprendedorismu, no ect. Nunee sei
expanda TL nia ekonomia sai independente no berdikari. God bless TL.
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