domingo, 15 de dezembro de 2024

US, China, Russia gearing up for space wars to come

Superpowers testing futuristic military capabilities as hunter-killer satellites and dogfights in space become new warfare reality

Gabriel Honrada | Asia Times

The battle for space supremacy is escalating as China’s stealthy maneuvers, Russia’s hunter-killer satellites and the US’s push for agile orbital combat capabilities converge toward future clashes in space.

This month, Air & Space Forces Magazine reported that China’s aggressive orbital maneuvers in geosynchronous orbit have prompted US Space Force leaders to seek enhanced maneuvering capabilities.

Air & Space Forces Magazine mentions that since 2010, China has launched nearly 1,000 satellites, with recent activities involving high movement rates, orbital warfare techniques and evasion tactics.

The report highlights the risks posed by China’s dynamic satellite maneuvers, which include inspecting, moving or damaging other satellites. The report says these maneuvers are unusual for geosynchronous orbit and aim to avoid detection and disruption.

The report says that US Space Force Commander General Stephen Whiting emphasized the need for sustained space maneuver capabilities, citing China’s use of novel orbits and on-orbit refueling.

It also mentions that Brigadier General Anthony Mastalir warned of a paradigm shift requiring the US to adapt. In addition, the report mentions that Lieutenant General Douglas Scheiss noted the potential for a “dogfight in space” due to both nations’ maneuvering capabilities.

Air & Space Forces Magazine notes that the US aims to develop systems like the X-37B spaceplane to reduce operational surprise and bridge orbital regimes.

In addition to the X-37B spaceplane, Defense Scoop reported in October 2024 that the US Space Force awarded a US$34.5 million contract to California-based startup Impulse Space to demonstrate on-orbit maneuverability for its tactically responsive space program.

According to Defense Scoop, the contract involves delivering two orbital maneuver vehicles (OMV) for the Victus Surgo and Victus Salo missions. The report notes that these missions aim to test pre-positioned space assets’ ability to address on-orbit threats quickly.

Defense Scoop mentions that the US Space Force seeks to refine its response to space threats and aims to achieve operational tactically responsive space capability by 2026. It also says the upcoming Victus Haze mission, slated for 2025, aims to test maneuverable space vehicles.

That month, Kosmos-2558 approached within 75 kilometers of the USA-326 satellite, which carries a classified payload for space-based intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) missions.

The US National Reconnaissance Office (NRO) has expressed concerns about the satellite’s proximity and potential threat. Russia has a history of deploying satellites with similar capabilities, including Kosmos-2491, Kosmos-2499, and Kosmos-2504, which have conducted proximity maneuvers since 2013.

Charles Galbreath mentions in a July 2024 article for the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies that the US Space Force should explore plans to deploy “hunter-killer” satellites, leveraging the flexibility and affordability of SmallSats to strengthen space superiority.

Galbreath says these hunter-killer satellites are designed to operate as co-orbital weapons capable of disabling adversary satellites through kinetic strikes, electronic warfare, laser targeting, spoofing and jamming.

He notes that patrolling near adversary assets, hiding in less-monitored orbits, or remaining dormant aboard larger spacecraft until activation enhances the US Space Force’s ability to execute offensive counter-space operations on short notice.

Additionally, Galbreath says these satellites can be “bodyguards” for high-value space assets, similar to fighter escorts for aircraft, thereby shielding critical systems like missile warning satellites from attack.

He notes that the adoption of SmallSats for this role is driven by their low cost, rapid development cycles, and potential for mass deployment, which enables the US to counter China’s and Russia’s growing space warfare capabilities.

Galbreath says the combination of precision targeting, operational agility and the ability to achieve effects without generating orbital debris underscores the transformative potential of SmallSats in US military space operations.

However, the rules of war regarding attacks against satellites aren’t crystal clear. In the 2023 book “Who Owns Outer Space?”, Michael Byers and Aaron Boley mention that the legal debate on whether an attack on a satellite constitutes an act of war centers on interpretations of jus ad bellum (right to war) and jus in bello (conduct in war) principles.

Byers and Boley say proponents argue that satellite attacks could qualify as armed force under Article 2(4) of the UN Charter, mainly if they significantly damage state assets or disrupt essential services like communications or navigation.

They point to the reliance on satellites for military, economic and civilian functions, suggesting that targeting these assets may justify invoking self-defense under Article 51.

Conversely, they mention that opponents note that not all satellite attacks meet the threshold of an “armed attack,” especially if effects are non-destructive, like signal jamming or hacking.

Moreover, Byers and Boley point out that satellites’ dual-use nature complicates attribution and intent assessment, making classifying such actions as acts of war challenging.

Photo: The US, China and Russia are all gearing up for war in space. Image: X Screengrab

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