Despite
the Prime Minister's confidence postal votes can secure the Coalition a
majority, Insiders host and political analyst Barrie Cassidy says he
"can't see that happening" and we are "well and truly in hung
parliament territory".
The
swing away from the Coalition and the loss of several key marginal seats is bad
news for the Prime Minister. He was dramatically installed in the top job,
ousting Tony Abbott, for his popularity but Saturday showed that goodwill was
gone.
Cassidy
offered this analysis:
He
was put in the job back in September, that's the way it looked, he was the
messiah, the guy who had the power of the polls and he blew it.
"You
have that 'we were robbed' speech on Saturday night bringing it back to
Medicare. The decline started before that. Elections are won and lost between
elections."
What
happened to Malcolm Turnbull's popularity?
There
was a lot of talk in the campaign about "the old Malcolm". Commentators
were referring to the Mr Turnbull that once appeared in touch with young
Australians and sat to the left of his party.
The
implication was that Mr Turnbull had lost his edge after becoming PM and many
put that down to the power wielded by the Liberal conservatives.
So,
what happened?
"He
disappointed some people who thought he might be an advocate on some of the
issues they believed in on the social agenda," Cassidy said.
"But
more importantly, he floated ideas around taxation, three big ones, none of
them landed.
"He
started to look like a ditherer. By the time of the election campaign, most of
the support evaporated."
The
campaign ended where it started in terms of support for the two parties. You
can't blame particular issues within the campaign. He blew it between January
and June.
That
leaves us here at a 'statistical dead heat'
And
yes, there is a possibility we could all head back to the polls for a tie
breaker.
____________
"That
would be a remarkable result from where they sit at the moment. I can't see
that happening," he said.
"The
most ambitious aim would be to get to 75 and try and persuade one or two [of
the crossbenchers] to give them emotional if not practical support.
"I
can't see that happening. We are well and truly in hung Parliament territory."
_____________
"Hung
parliament territory" means neither the Coalition or the Labor Party are
likely to reach the 76-seat quota required to form government.
Cassidy
puts the two major parties at 72 seats apiece.
That
means, like in 2010, the crossbenchers hold the balance of power.
Remember,
before the election:
The
Greens said they would not form any sort of partnership with the Coalition and
have reiterated that since Saturday
Bill
Shorten said Labor would not form a coalition with the Greens to form
government
This
is the Cassidy crossbencher state of play
His
key points are:
"This
time around, I don't think anybody will sign up formally with the way the
Greens did with the Labor Party in 2010"
"The
best they can hope for is some sort of guarantee around supply and a loose
arrangement"
"I
don't think either can stitch an arrangement that will give them 76 in the
House"
That's
an awful situation for any government to be in when you haven't got an
arrangement that gets you automatically to 76 seats in the House and you've got
a hostile Senate.
We
do have a pretty clear picture of the Senate results and while that might be
good news for counters, the results are going to make it "very, very tough
on the government of the day".
"The
Senate is straightforward enough, 19 crossbenchers, nine of them will be from
the Greens. It is a simple equation now," Cassidy said.
"Let's
say the Coalition emerges in the House of Representatives, the simple equation
for them [when trying to pass legislation], if they can't get Labor and the
Greens ... [is] they have to get nine out of 10 of the other crossbenchers.
"Look
at who they are. [There] could be three Xenophons, three Hansons, two at the
moment, one or two Jacqui Lambies, a Derryn Hinch and a couple of other
assorted people."
That
is not an easy ask.
OK,
if no-one gets 76 seats and no-one's doing any deals, who is going to govern?
___________________
"What
will happen is one or the other will emerge, probably the Coalition, and say
'we think we can govern without a vote of no confidence against us in the
House' and they'll carry on and see how it works.
"But
don't be surprised if it doesn't work, if the feel is bad and somewhere down
the track we'll have to go back to another election."
____________________
That
is the tie breaker we mentioned.
Cassidy
said we should know more by Wednesday night and after two days of counting
there might be one or two seats still in play.
ABC
News - Live results
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