'This is a brilliant move
straight out of The Art of The Deal – Bolton will scare [North Korea] to
death'
By ANDREW
SALMON | Asia Times
S President Donald Trump’s
surprise appointment of hardliner John Bolton as National Security Adviser on
Thursday may have particular impact North Korea policy as Bolton has
taken, arguably, a harder line against the state than any other Washington
figure in recent years.
Having served in the George W.
Bush administration that famously dubbed North Korea part of the “Axis of
Evil,” Bolton is a formidable briefer, with expert knowledge of the country’s
atomic programs. Last month, he published a column arguing the case for a
first-strike against North Korea.
He is also a proponent of
nixing the Iranian nuclear deal. That prospect appalls many policymakers
and pundits – partly on the grounds that such an action would indicate to
Pyongyang that Washington cannot be trusted to stick to the deals it signs.
Bolton’s appointment follows the
recent dropping of academic Victor Cha as ambassador to Seoul, and the retirement
of Joseph Yun from the position of United States Special Representative
for North Korea Policy. There is concern in both Seoul and Washington that the
administration is losing expert insight on the flashpoint peninsula.
South Korea’s presidential Blue
House, which had worked closely with the previous National Security Adviser HR
McMasters, was diplomatic on the personnel shift.
“While serving as undersecretary
of state, Bolton gained a great deal of knowledge about Korean Peninsula
issues, and most of all, he is an advisor trusted by President Trump,” a senior
presidential official said, according to newswire Yonhap. “We will be
cooperating closely with President Trump, the national security advisor and the
secretary of state.”
What will North Korea think?
Even so, the signal Bolton’s
appointment to the inner sanctum of the White House sends to North Korea, as it
gears up for its first-ever summit with a US president in May, is open to
interpretation.
Pundits are divided over whether
North Korea is coming to the summit from a position of strength generated by
the latest developments of its strategic weapons programs, or from weakness in
the face of sanctions pressure and fear of what Trump might do; the latter
position is what the US president himself appears to believe.
Viewed in this light, Bolton’s
appearance on the scene might be considered a slap in the face for their
diplomatic efforts – or might propel them down the diplomatic route with even
greater urgency than previously.
“This is a brilliant move
straight out of The Art of The Deal – Bolton will scare them to death
so Trump can negotiate from a position of peace through strength,” said Mike
Bassett, an independent Pyongyangologist with extensive personal experience of
North Korea who recently retired from a position inside the beltway. “This type
of coercive diplomacy will force them to the table and to take negotiations
seriously: Kim Jong-un, like President Trump, is an alpha personality who only
respects a strongman counterpart.”
“Trump’s lineup is getting a lot
more hardline,” admitted Go Myung-hyun, a North Korea specialist at Seoul think
tank the Asan Institute. “But this is not a bad thing for North Korea as Trump
is hiring people who have his trust. With [former Secretary of State Rex]
Tillerson, there was no point in using the New York [United Nations] channel,
but now he is sidelined, they know that they can talk to [incoming Secretary of
State Mike] Pompeo and get straight to Trump.”
And with Trump still behind the
planned summit, Bolton’s appointment does not necessarily mean Armageddon is
imminent.
“If Bolton had been appointed to
the position of secretary of defense, that would be more worrisome, but this
role is as coordinator,” Go added. “Bolton is going to make a lot of noise
about hard pressure, so the North Koreans have the option of getting scared,
but they may realize that the game is still on.”
North Korea finally speaks out on
‘diplomatic offensive’
Meanwhile, North Korea – which
only mentioned the May summit proposal to South Korean envoys, and has not yet
formally referenced it nor mentioned it in state media – appears to be
preparing necessary groundwork.
This may reassure those who,
given the North’s silence on the issue thus far, feared that the South Korean
side may have misrepresented what Kim Jong-in and other officials had
told them.
Its parliament will meet in
April, while state media is making veiled references to the new mood between
Washington and Pyongyang.
On Tuesday, AP reported that the
Korean Central News Agency noted that Pyongyang’s “proactive measure and
peace-loving proposal” have caused a “dramatic atmosphere for reconciliation…. in
relations between the North and the South of Korea and that there has been a
sign of change also in the DPRK-US relations.”
The DPRK is an acronym for the
North’s official name, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.
Calling ongoing moves “a dialogue
peace offensive,” the KCNA lambasted critics of the summit in Japan, South
Korea and the US – whose position is that North Korea cannot be trusted as a
good-faith negotiator and that Trump will be “played” by Kim.
“Their useless gossip is the same
as lying down and spitting, only embarrassing authorities who accepted our
peace-loving request,” the KCNA said. The commentary noted that “The dialogue
peace offensive of the DPRK is an expression of self-confidence as it has
acquired everything it desires,” and called on all parties to act with
“prudence, self-control and patience.”
Photo: Former US ambassador to
the UN John Bolton (L) and outgoing White House National Security Adviser HR
McMaster. Photos: Reuters
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